Mechanism Of Global Warming

Is global warming really due to carbon dioxide?

There are various reasons why the Earth has warmed up in history. Changes in crustal movements, changes in ocean currents, changes in solar activity, and the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere caused by large-scale magma eruptions…

But to avoid confusion, looking at the current Quaternary glaciation (glacial period) (Quaternary glaciation-Wikipedia), it has been repeated alternately at a cycle of about 100,000 years for the past 2.58 million years. The main cause of the glacial (cold) and interglacial (warm) seasons is a change in the Earth's distance from the sun, called the Milankovitch cycle (Wikipedia). As the Earth's revolution approached the sun, the temperature rose, the ice on the land and the sea melted, the reflection of sunlight decreased, and the warmed ocean released carbon dioxide at the same time, promoting warming. In the past warming, the trigger was the change in the distance from the earth's sun, and the increase in carbon dioxide occurred as a result. I know it was a thing.

However, this past mechanism of global warming does not apply to current global warming at all.

The present Earth is in the interglacial period, the last glacial period ended about 12,000 years ago. Although the current warming up to the interglacial period is thought to be due to the natural cycle, we have released a large amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere mainly by the combustion of fossil fuels since human beings were industrialized. It was. In other words, it has created a new and most powerful cause of global warming that has never existed in nature. The carbon dioxide concentration in the earth's atmosphere, which had been changing between 180ppm and 280ppm so far, exceeded 400ppm in 2018. There is consensus among current meteorologists that this anthropogenic and record carbon dioxide concentration is what further accelerates the warming of the current interglacial period. Moreover, the speed is calculated as 170 times the natural warming so far. Since the carbon dioxide concentration has become an unprecedented number, if human beings can not reduce this, it is very likely that global warming will be at an unprecedented level .

Many lives on the Earth today are born on Earth during the Quaternary Ice Age that began 2.58 million years ago, so they (we) are experiencing an unprecedented warm earth. . As a result, the extinction of millions of species is expected.

At the end of this century, the world is trying to work together to reduce the temperature to within 1.5 ° C compared to the pre-industrial temperature. To achieve this, until 2030 It is necessary to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 45% and by 2050 it must be reduced by 100%. This is a figure that can only be achieved when the whole world is united. Although Fifty Fifty and scientists anticipate that even if this 1.5 ° C can be achieved, the Earth can avoid chain reaction that accelerates global warming beyond its tipping point, it is still worth the effort There is. Because it is insignificant compared to the difficulties that humankind face when not achieving this target.

From a logical point of view, I think there is a causal relationship.

However, it has not been proved and I think it is difficult to conclude by observation. Carbon dioxide and temperature observations are roughly correlated, but not causal. Whether carbon dioxide in seawater is released into the atmosphere due to changes in temperature or whether the concentration of carbon dioxide in seawater increases due to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is unknown.

At present, it seems that only a large-scale simulation result by a computer is said.

However, the mechanism of global warming is that a large amount of heat is poured from the sun to the earth, and most of it is released again from the earth to the universe. There is also an effect of increasing indirectly). It seems that the model is extremely complex and requires a large amount of relational expressions, physical properties, and current data, but in order to calculate subtle changes in global temperature, an ultra-high-precision model expression and numerical values ​​are used. It is impossible to imagine that accurate model formulas and numerical values ​​for such calculations have been obtained with the required accuracy.

Therefore, only the calculation results when global warming is obtained as a result may be published.

It is the intergovernmental panel on IPCC climate change that is being promoted and discussed in global warming research, but this is not a so-called academic society. It is a United Nations organization that assumes global warming. Therefore, here, in principle, we cannot give a research presentation that criticizes or denies global warming. Therefore, although the scientific method may be used for the announcement here, I don't think it is a general scientific conclusion.

More than that, political, corporate management, and political relations between developed and underdeveloped countries seem strong. For example, the nuclear power companies and the promotion government have been strongly supported and willing to use them, and recently developed countries are being used to reduce energy consumption in the developing countries.

Of course, because there is a risk of global warming, it is thought that beta is to promote the suppression of carbon dioxide generation. Reducing the use of natural energy resources is also an extremely important matter for reconsideration and conversion of modern civilization based on mass energy consumption.

(Additional notes below)

It is not well known whether global warming is immediately "bad".氷 Glaciers and ice caps melt and sea level rises. A big city is submerged! On the other hand, the desert has been greened, the tundra ice has melted, and livestock and agricultural products have been increased (the effect of carbon dioxide).

Will the typhoon become stronger? This seems to be just an imagination. The theory is so, but is it difficult to evaluate quantitatively?

Is the sea level rise so scary? Already in the big city along the sea in Japan, the ground has subsided about 1m at the beginning of postwar high growth. Osaka city is sinking up to 3m. Most of the cause is pumping up groundwater and liquefaction due to some earthquakes. Still protected by a seawall.

In short, what is important is to apply a negative effect and a positive effect to the balance. I don't think it's done.